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Back Numbers 2006
On 13-6-2006 at a VDF workshop, Prof. Izumi Ohno (GRIPS, photo right)
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Family impact on adolescent sexuality and
reproductive health
On 21-12-2006, Ms.
Pham Quynh Huong (PhD candidate, Tokyo Univ) presented her survey
framework and design at a VDF workshop. Her study focuses on
socio-economic conditions of the family and parental factors as
determinants of youth's knowledge, belief, attitude and behavior
relating to sex. Initial survey will be conducted in January 2007, with
financial support from VDF, followed by a full survey in 2007.
Participants raised a number of questions. 0n sample size,
questionnaire design, proposed hypotheses, and how to conduct interviews
with sensitive content.
On
20-12-2006, VDF hosted a symposium to report its study on Hanoi's
development. Policy makers from Hanoi People's Committee, as well as
other officials, researchers and experts were invited. Ms. Ngo Thi Thanh
Hang (Vice Chair, HNPC) and Prof. Nguyen Van Thuong (Rector, NEU) opened
the symposium. Prof. Kenichi Ohno (VDF) presented VDF's advice on
manufacturing strategies and Ms. Pham Thi Huyen evaluated Hanoi's
business conditions as perceived by investors. Free discussion
discussion touched on various issues including integral and modular
architecture, Hanoi's high-tech and service orientation, how to
interpret experiences of Thailand and Malaysia, need to open up the
policy formulation process, etc. VDF's Hanoi report is available in
English and Vietnamese. 
On
4&5-12-2006, Malaysia's Institute of Strategic & International Studies
(ISIS) organized the East Asia Congress in Kuala Lumpur, inviting many
scholars and officials from East Asian countries. Prime Minister Abdullar Haji Ahmad Badawi (photo) gave an opening speech, stressing
that the core of East Asian community building must be ASEAN+3, and
criticized countries that proposed different membership or processes for
political influence. Subsequent sessions discussed politics,
integration, Japan-China rivalry, intra-regional gaps, etc. Prof. Ohno (VDF/GRIPS) pointed to the weaknesses of Thailand and Malaysia in
building industrial human resources and offered lessons for latecomers
like Vietnam. Participants from Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, Cambodia,
etc. were deeply interested in his argument and were happy to receive
VDF's industrial policy formulation book. 
On 29-11-2006, Mr.
Nguyen Phi Lan discussed relation between FDI and growth in Vietnam.
Simultenous equations were run over 1996-2003 using data from 61
provinces. It was found that FDI, exports and labor force contributed to
provincial growth, and FDI in turn was stimulated by many variables
including provincial growth, exports and human capital. Another
regression checked if FDI crowded out domestic investment. Many
questions were raised by participants on data quality, provincial
spillover, consistency with known FDI motives in VN, policy
implications, etc. This research was part of Mr. Lan's PhD dissertation
at the University of South Australia. Mr. Lan will be a VDF visiting
researcher in the next four months. 
On
19-10-2006, Mr. Hoang Van Phuong (MPI) analyzed ODA's contribution to
growth at the VDF workshop. This was part of his MA thesis at
Hitotsubashi Univ, Tokyo. After reviewing literature and data, growth
regressions on 23 Asian countries were reported. ODA and policy index
(low inflation, budget, openness) had positive effects on growth, but
ODA had nonlinear, diminishing returns. Dollar's hypothesis, that ODA
works only when policy is good, was not supported. Growth accounting for
VN was also performed and ODA's contribution to growth, through capital
accumulation, was estimated at about 6%. Participants discussed
difficulty in decomposing growth when many factors interact, the need to
conduct micro and institutional studies, and issues on data quality and
assumptions. 
On
19-9-2006 at VDF, Ms. Mai Ngoc Lan (NEU) presented her empirical study
from a chapter of her PhD dissertation at Shiga Univ, Japan. When the
exchange rate fluctuates, exporters can keep either VND prices or USD
prices stable. Pooled regressions were run using data from 17 industries
from 1991 to 2000. Imported input content and degree of concentration were
controlled for. For garment, footwear and electronics exports,
pass-through was high (USD prices remained stable) because of high
imported input contents. For rice and other food products, VND prices were
also adjusted as producers changed profit margins. This was explained by
the fact that Vietnam was a large exporter of a number of food products
which permitted price maneuvering. 
On
31-08-2006, Mr. Ngo Duc Anh from VDF/NEU presented some issues of
supporting industries development in Vietnam at the “Vietnam-Japan
Conference on SME Policy in Vietnam Under the Impact of Globalization”
co-hosted by VCCI, JETRO, JICA,SMRI, JEF (JAPAN). Mr. Duc Anh also
reported some results from MOI’s hearing mission of Japanese firms by VDF and MOI in early this year.
He discussed the industrial policy and roles of
government in FDI promotion to build local technology capabilities in
Vietnam. He also analyzed the determinants of Vietnam's national learning
system such as human capital, resource endowments, industrial policies,
the nature of factor markets and institutions as well as the
coordinating role of government bodies and institutions to support and
promote supporting industries to attract FDI and “plug into” global value
chain in this era. 
On
23-8-2006, Motorbike Joint Working Group (JWG) heard from Mr. Tetsuji
Masujima (ALMEC), a transport expert with more than 10years of experience
in VN. National Traffic Safety Committee's data on fatality, injuries,
causes and vehicle types were presented. Specific routes and intersections
were examined, and Hanoi and HCMC data were also shown. Data gaps,
especially in number of accidents and injuries, are a big problem that
prevents analysis. After getting more consistent data, traffic safety
roadmap should be drafted to improve riders' behavior and infrastructure.
World Bank, JBIC and JICA are implementing traffic safety programs, as
well as ADB (completed), Honda and others. This session concluded JWG's
eight brainstorming sessions. JWG will now turn to deciding main contents
and structure of the proposed motorbike master plan. 
On 22-8-2006, two
researchers from GRIPS/VDF Tokyo presented their results at VDF Hanoi. Ms.
Nguyen Thi Xuan Thuy classified the concepts of SI, and proposed a new
policy-oriented definition covering inputs to assembly-type industries.
Localization, linkage, and policies of other countries were also reviewed.
Mr. Junichi Mori reported the survey of SI databases in Japan and other
countries, and raised various issues that are crucial in successful
databases: for example, need to contain enough information to facilitate
supplier search, how to overcome difficulty in gathering and updating firm
data, whether database should be national or local, etc.When their studies
are completed, VDF will publish a book together with other related
studies. 
On
18-8-2006, Mr. Giang Thanh Long (GRIPS/VDF Tokyo) presented a paper on
VN's elderly people, co-authored by Prof. W. Pfau (GRIPS). Shifting
conditions of VN's old people were examined using VN Living Standard
Surveys 1992/93, 1997/98, 2002 and 2004. Marital status (married/widowed),
living arrangements (only elderly, dependent, or family head), working
status, income sources, housing and poverty were reviewed. Data limitation
and interpretation of results were also discussed. This study provides
background information for future research on the reform of VN's pension
system. 
On
09-8-2006, Mr. Nguyen Duc Thanh (GRIPS PhD program) presented one of his
dissertation chapters. A theoretical model was constructed to explain
"brain circulation," a situation where skilled persons would migrate
abroad but later return home to continue to work. Such homecoming is often
explained by ad hoc factors such as love of home country or family ties,
but his model explained it by monetary motives. Assuming that the home
country was growing and the foreign country offered higher income but
larger fluctuation, Mr. Thanh showed that low-skill people would not
migrate, middle-skill people would migrate and later come back, and those
with highest skills would not return. Participants discussed the nature of
uncertainty, possibility of risk-loving entrepreneurs, transition cost,
and applicataion to internal migration. 
On 8-8-2006, VDF hosted
a workshop on VN's university education issues. Ms. Pham Thi Huyen (VDF/NEU) presented a list of basic problems covering heavy curriculum, management, teachers, materials, and social attitude. The
results of these problems were also numerated. In discussion, various
points were raised including weak linkage between job market and
university education, instances of low quality, weaknesses of students,
new MOET minister, official intervention, and international comparison.
Education researchers and teachers took part in this meeting. VDF hopes to
launch new research on university education and this was the first
stock-taking. We
will continue to hear various views and shape our research focus in months
to come. 
On
21-6-2006 at VDF, Ms. Le Thu Huyen (photo right) and Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh
Hoa (both Univ. of Transport and Communication) presented VN's road
accident data. Sources, availability, and reliability of data were
examined. The reasons for reduced accidents since 2002 were also
discussed. VN's road accident data are not consistently compiled by
related authorities. The two researchers had access to various data
classified by cause, vehicle type, location, etc. but arranging them into
a coherent dataset would require time. This was one of the brainstorming
sessions of the motorbike joint working group organized by VDF (to obtain
slides 2.2MB, please contact VDF). 
On
16-6-2006 at VDF, Ms. Le Huong Linh (PhD prog. Tohoku Univ) presented data
analysis on VN's industrial zones. Trend in IZ establishment over the
years, distribution between north and south, and policy preferring north
were discussed. It was noted that, over time, FDI-led industrialization
was replaced by industrialization for regional development. It was
suggested
that FDI developers should be encouraged to improve the quality and
occupancy of IZs. Participants asked for improved presentation since data
were quite complicated. Provincial competition and success elements were
also considered. 
On
16-6-2006, Prof. Nozomu Kawabata (Tohoku Univ) gave a VDF workshop on VN's
steel industry. Based on up-to-date information, he discussed the need to
shift policy to a new phase, proper market regulation, current and
future balance of long and flat steel, scrap import issue, tariff
structure, possibility of User Specific Duty Free Scheme (USDFS), FDI-led
strategy for integrated mills, and Thach khe mine. He stressed that
success of Phu My Steel Works and Phu My Flat Steel was essential to
convince international producers that VN was a reliable partner for future
cooperation. Participants included VSA, VSC, MOI, Energy Institute, steel
traders, steel using firms, and researchers. 
Prof. Masumi Shimamura (GRIPS) reported their ongoing research on
Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines. Policy making fuctions, actors and
their coordination were analyzed with concrete examples such as Thailand's
Eastern Seaboard project. Leadership and central economic agencies as well
as diverse country perspective were emphasized. Participants asked about
the risk of relying too much on one leader, wisdom of excessive
decentralizion in aid management, and general applicability to Vietnam.
Total of 25 people attended from MPI, MOT, Japanese, Danish and Swiss
embassies and aid agencies, UNDP, IDE and academia. This research is part
of GRIPS' international comparative studies on development management.
On
8&9-5-2006, Japan's METI and AOTS and Vietnam's MOI and VCCI co-hosted a
conference in Hanoi. Prof. Akira Suehiro (photo) discussed industrial
policies of Japan and Thailand, Ms. Momoko Kawakami explained Taiwan's
policies, and others presented Japan's automobile policy and industrial
cluster policy, with details on institution, procedure and implementation.
It was stressed that Japan's industrial policy aimed to activate and
support private dynamism without imposing targets from above. MOI
officials made presentations from the Vietnamese perspective. This was a
training program provided by AOTS as well as the first step toward future
cooperation between METI and MOI. 
On
Apr 17, Ms Le Thi Ha (MOLISA) and Ms Nguyen Thi Minh Tam (MOHA) made a
presentation on HIV infected prostitutes in Quang Ninh province. In
Quang Ninh the HIV infection rate is highest nationwide (572,5
infected over 100,000 people). Although sex workers is one of high-risk
groups of HIV transmission, few of them acknowledge about their HIV
transmission risk. Only 5.2% of interviewees think that they are at
high-risk of HIV transmission. 
On 12-4-2006, at VDF
workshop, Prof. Kenichi Ohno (co-leader, VDF) reported the main findings
of Japanese firm hearings conducted in March. This was in support of MOI's
SI master plan drafting and covered electronics, motorbikes and
automobiles. For Japan, competitiveness means Quality, Cost and Delivery.
To achieve these, demand size is crucial. In addition, industrial human
resources, stable policies and proper tariff-tax structure are needed. To
link local suppliers with FDI, information and perception gaps must be
overcome. Vietnam's strategy based on integral manufacturing was also
discussed. 
On 11-4-2006, Prof. Bui
Phuong Lan of Hanoi University of Foreign Studies (HUFS) gave a VDF
workshop on job-education matching. Her results were based on a pilot
survey of international organizations in Hanoi, funded by VDF. HUFS's
curriculum in international studies and MOET's guideline were discussed,
and expectations by international employers were reported. Participants
discussed sampling technique, how to inculcate value and
ethics, issues in internship, etc. The workshop was attended by NGOs,
international organizations and university professors. 
On 17-2-2006, Junichi
Mori, a VDF Tokyo researcher, presented his results in Hanoi. Mori
discussed the concept of supporting industry (SI), its positive and
negative externalities, why SI is important in industrialization, and data
from neighboring countries. He then identified two problems in Vietnam,
limited demand size and the information gap, and proposed collaborative
training programs like Malaysia’s Penang Skills Development Center. The
workshop was attended by MOI’s SI master plan team, JICA experts, industry
associations, and VDF, GRIPS and FTU researchers. 
From
9-1 to 13-1-2006, VDF and MOI staged a mission to Kuala Lumpur and Penang
to study Malaysia's industrial policy method and organizations. Malaysia's
Ministry of International Trade & Industry (MITI) is in the final stage of
preparing Industrial Master Plan 3 (IMP3, 2006-2020). There is an explicit
and elaborate mechanism to involve businesses and related agencies,
including Industrial Planning Committee, Steering Committee, and 10
Technical Resource Groups for drafting each chapter. The structure of IMP3
will be more diverse and functional than IMP2 (1996-2005) which aimed at
improving value-chain positions of 8 industrial clusters. Whether this
drafting mechanism could work in Vietnam was considered. Proton, the
national car company, and the Penang Skills Development Center were also
visited. This was the third VDF-MOI joint trip after Thailand and Japan. 
On
20-1-2006, Ms. Dang Thu Huong (NEU) presented "FDI in China 1979-2005:
current situation and experience" from her dissertation chapters. History
and data of FDI policy and performance in China were reviewed.
Participants raised questions about authority of central and local
governments in providing incentives, WTO impact, investment by overseas
Chinese, Japanese manufacturers' views, etc. Some suggested that more
specific information was needed to compare experiences with Vietnam.
On
17-1-2006, at VDF, Mr. Vu Cuong (NEU), Ms. Hoang Thuy Nguyet (Academy of
Finance) and Ms. Nguyen Quynh Hoa (NEU) discussed the impact of Decree 10
allowing financial and personnel autonomy to public service delivery
units. Their study was based on interviews at St. Paul Hospital in Hanoi
and General Hospital of Thanh Hoa. St. Paul Hospital successfully
implemented Decree 10 by boosting on-demand service revenue, raising staff
salaries and servicing poor while charging more to rich. By contrast,
Thanh Hoa General Hospital continued to depend on budget transfers and
fixed user charges due to its locational disadvantage. Overcrowding and
charges set too low were common problems to both. Policy advice, including
applying Decree 10 differently to 3 types of hospital, was made. Copyright © 2004-07 Vietnam Development Forum (VDF), All Rights Reserved.
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